According to the some opinion, one of big issue in 2013 is how unstability Syria that seems like no end. Possible many scenario or prediction for this case. But, in simple way, let we try to remember how democratization -or some people called with westernisation- of middle east starting in two countries, Egypt and Libya.
First, let we see the story of Libya. Libya, with the big power of president Moammar Khaddafi, ruling in charge for more than 40 years. Sat at the throne since 1969, and then rocked by storm of democratization in 2011.
Libya is the one of some country that saving by gold, not american dollar or paper money. Besides Libya, Syria and Iran also do the same. This make dollar currency un-stable. And western unhappy with this.
As knowing by all the world, western had some problem with someone who ruling their country for long time. Too long long time. Western, with US voice that always bring the bad name : dictator. With "holy war for better humanism" - as a single reason, western will kill the king. Western never announcing about gold, about oil, or some else. They just say about democracy. And that reason is full enough to kill the king.
How to kill that king ? They blowing the hot issue named "democratization". And then, many people will move demonstratively to kill their king by their hands, not by US trooper. If necessary, western will arming protesters, but they do with silent.
When king had dies, some events will happen. First is the question of "who is next ?". With this, some foreign interest will play their game.
Country ravaged by civil war, of course, the infrastructure is falling apart anyway. To restore it all, it takes the contractor, funding, and materials. Western scrambling to run this business.
Since king dies everything become more " irregular " than before. Unpredictable economic, unsafe living, political conflict, oil war, and many more. And so many loan, of course, for rebuilding that country, with big rate. Money for western. So pity the face of Libya. Khaddafi dies at 2011, October. And until now they still crowded.
Let we leave Libya, and facing Egypt. Hosni Mubarak is Egypt President that ruling since 1981. In western opinion, Hosni also as dictator. And must be ousted. By what ? and what for ? .... The answer is by democracy... and for better living.
Storm for Egypt earlier than Libya, actually. Mobarak ousted in early 2011, i think February 2011. Democracy era begin. With political election, Egypt people choose Mursi. The right hand of Islamic organization.
Who is Mursi ? After elected by democratic people, Mursi kicking out Zionist from Palestinan negotiation. With this fact, western unhappy. This is a western stereotype. Mobarak ousted, and Mursi take a lead to climb the throne. But, they don't like Mursi. So, in western mind, Mursi must be ousted, again. Mursi kicked out in middle of October 2013.
By the democracy in all the world, western is happy. But if democracy process creating islamic leader, western unhappy. Because western believe that democracy will create secular president, not islamic president. If not like that, anomaly, and must be bursting from the start again.
Reflecting by the case of Egypt and Libya, we see what happen in Syria. The president of Syria is Bashar al-Assad, ruling since 2000. Just 13 years ruling, but still called as dictator because Assad replacing his father Hafizh al-Assad. Transfer of power from father to son, same like in monarchy system. Furthermore, Bashar also holding the army for repressing people.
Iran, who don't like and always hostile to western, especially since nuke case, blinding to support Bashar. Who is Bashar, Iran don't care. Iran just want to stop the storm from western that success ousted Khaddafi and Mobarak. Iran want to stop this domination. Some say that Iran support Bashar because Bashar is syiah. But i think not.
Also Russia, they think like Iranian. Contrary to Iran, Israel supported the overthrow Bashar.
How to overthrow Bashar, the process of democratization still running for many months. In the early 2013, western say loud to support protesters who want to kill Bashar. Also israel agree with western. But in the end of 2013, Israel switch their opinion and declare that israel want Bashar still standing as president of Syria.
Why Israel switch their opinion ? Israel read the case of Egypt with carefully. If Bashar fall down, some persons who potential replace Bashar appear from islamic hard-liner. Same with Egypt when Mursi take a lead of Egypt after Mobarak toppled, and then Mursi manifests as the second enemy. Western and Israel don't wanna make twice mistake.  haris fauzi - dec 2013